Report: RevPAR declines slowing for hotels - Houston Business Journal:

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RevPAR will reach its cyclical low point in the thirs quarterof 2009, closing the escalating trend of declines in RevPAR that began in the thirr quarter of 2008, according to . "Thr good news is that the bottom of the current cyclre forthe U.S. hotel industry is soon to arrive,” said R. Mark president of PKF Hospitality Research, in a news release. “Thde bad news is that 2009 will be the weakest year on recor for the domesticlodging industry, and 2010 is going to be disappointinfg as well. If you are wonderin when we'll start to see actual growth in then you'll have to wait until 2011.
if you want to know when the operating environment is going to get a littleless that's happening right now." Lodging forecastx presented in the June 2009 edition of Hotel Horizonss are based on Smith Travel Research hotel performance data through March 2009 and Moody'sw Economy.com's May 2009 economic forecast for the nation. Given the correlation betweeh employment andlodging demand, the new expectation is for RevPA R to decline 17.5 percent in followed by another 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-year quarterly declined in the demandfor U.S. lodging accommodationa started in the first quarter of 2008 and peakec at negative 8 percent in the first quarterrof 2009.
The June 2009 edition of Hotel Horizons forecasts demand to decline each of the remaininhg quartersof 2009, but at a diminishing pace. The projectes quarterly declines in demand for the remainderr of 2009 averagejust 4.7 percent. Beyondd 2009, the forecast calls for averagd annual increases in demandof 3.2 percent for the next four well above the 1.9 percentr long-term average. But given the forecast 17.5 percenft decline in RevPAR for allof PKF-HR is projecting total hotelk revenues to decrease 16 percent for the In 2011 and 2012, PKF-H forecasts that RevPAR will increase on an average annual basis of 9.2 percent, while profits will rise at a 17.8 percenrt pace.